Derren Brown Events (How to win the National Lottery)

[Sneeka]

Originally Posted by ajr90

I suppose you were also disappointed when you never got your million dollars from the Nigerian bloke who emailed you out of the blue.

I did wonder why he's stopped replying to my emails

But no, I think it's the fact that DB has (on occasion) revealed the real secrets behind his tricks - eg. the ten-heads coin toss, or the horse race. So, I think people were half expecting he'd do the same here. I thought he was all about exposing bogus theories - not creating them.

[B0zza]

Originally Posted by dl2004

Based on what? 1 million people could theoretically pick the same number.

You didn't get as far as A-level maths, did you?

[dl2004]

Originally Posted by B0zza

You didn't get as far as A-level maths, did you?

1 million people pick '1' how is that '25'?

You re just making assumptions about 'averages' but not backing it up with anything.

[AdamBrunt]

Originally Posted by stephen

They did the same thing here 70 years ago (at 1:17) with no jumping balls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eeA8GR2on0

Reminds of the camera tricks used in the early Bond films; in particular the tarantula crawling 'on' Connery's arm and Connery swimmimg 'alongside' sharks in the pool in Thunderball.

[B0zza]

Originally Posted by dl2004

1 million people pick '1' how is that '25'?

You re just making assumptions about 'averages' but not backing it up with anything.

You're right - 1 million people will pick 1.

[statto]

Originally Posted by B0zza

You didn't get as far as A-level maths, did you?

Originally Posted by dl2004

1 million people pick '1' how is that '25'?

You re just making assumptions about 'averages' but not backing it up with anything.

You're seriously suggesting one million people could all pick the same number (let's not hide behind theoreticals here)?

If I accept that will you accept that they all pick 25?

[B0zza]

Originally Posted by dl2004

1 million people pick '1' how is that '25'?

You re just making assumptions about 'averages' but not backing it up with anything.

Originally Posted by B0zza

You're right - 1 million people will pick 1.

I thought I was beat but, blimey, I think I may have stumbled upon something that might, just might, back up my assertion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Phew!

[dl2004]

Originally Posted by statto

You're seriously suggesting one million people could all pick the same number (let's not hide behind theoreticals here)?

If I accept that will you accept that they all pick 25?

You have just proven my point - they could all pick 1 they could all pick 25 or they could all pick different numbers - but the average wouldn't be 25 every time. Maybe the average of the average would be 25 but you would never get the same total every time.

[Sneeka]

Annnnnnnyway.. I see that Derren has tweeted again..

Well there you go. I trust all is clear now. Enjoy next week's! X

[dl2004]

Originally Posted by B0zza

I thought I was beat but, blimey, I think I may have stumbled upon something that might, just might, back up my assertion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Phew!

You said you would get 25 every time but the link says:

"In this experiment we see that the average of die rolls deviates wildly at first."

[Richie]

Originally Posted by Sneeka

I thought he was all about exposing bogus theories - not creating them.

Is it possible that this is actually the theme of the whole series? Big "event" lies. He did say all "the events" were about misdirection and he did more or less reveal the real truth to the lotto trick in the juggling trailer the week before but it all depends where people want to look and what they want to believe.

[zenza]

The link in post 417 shows exactly how he did it.

[joconnor]

I reckon over the next 3(?) events he will do some more tricks and give bogus explanations. On the last one he will just reveal everything for what it was.

[Richie]

Originally Posted by zenza

The link in post 417 shows exactly how he did it.

Yes, I know. It's the same technique in the juggling trailer.

[MetalGearAl]

Originally Posted by dl2004

You said you would get 25 every time but the link says:

"In this experiment we see that the average of die rolls deviates wildly at first."

"At first". We also talked about taking the average on a very large set of people (an example of 1 million was given, I believe). Of course if you just take say 5 numbers and divide by 5, it's not going to be exactly 25.

if you're bored, add up 100 random numbers you can come up with between 1 - 49 in a calculator and divide by 100. It'll be close to 25, and the more numbers you add up, the closer it'll be. Though this isn't really a good test to be honest, because as people we're not brilliant at coming up with random numbers by ourselves.

[NicolaUK]

Originally Posted by scoobyood

Mayyyybbbee.. though it seems unlikely. He moves them and they look solid. I thought the box they were in might have had a mirror on the front and the balls were actually below, so they could be moved.. but that doesn't look the case when he rotates the box. Maybe they are expensive wireless OLED displays! That'd do it.

I've been away and just checked this, we got 4 numbers and were one away from 5 on this draw

[Ratfink]

Originally Posted by ajr90

Or perhaps we should be handing out Memento-style Polaroids of Derren Brown, with 'Don't believe his lies' scrawled on them.

[w_n_s]

Originally Posted by stephen

What complete and utter tripe, a camera trick followed by a hour of BS. I was expecting some surprise at the end but there was nothing. He could have at least come up with some semi convncing explanation that would spark more debate. I've heard he's quite good from friends that have seen him, but I've got no interest in seeing any of his other stuff after this.

I wonder hoe many people will believe it and start up prediction evenings?

For someone drunk who missed show - what did he say? summary please? ********?

[eye__writ]

He said that he assembled a group of barely employable half-wits and got them to go all Derek Akorah to predict the numbers using "automatic writing", which was of course enhanced due to first making them play a few untie the knot style team bonding games.

[Sneeka]

Originally Posted by w_n_s

For someone drunk who missed show - what did he say? summary please? ********?

He got 24 people to guess what the numbers would be. He took their guesses and calculated the average number per ball - this was his prediction

He also implied at the end that he actually hypnotized someone at Camelot and rigged the lottery machine with weighted balls. Which never happened, obviously.