Derren Brown Events (How to win the National Lottery) - Page 21

MetalGearAl · 11-09-2009, 21:59

Richie - Don't worry about it. They certainly didn't when filming it on Wednesday

Richie · 11-09-2009, 22:00

Hard and deep!

ohhh

xxx · 11-09-2009, 22:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richie

Maths is hard!

That's why you need Deep Maths

MetalGearAl · 11-09-2009, 22:01

He's drawn in quite a crowd. It's the highest trend on Twitter (wonder how many people in the US have paid attention). Though most of the comments are people calling the show absolute balls...

johnrevill · 11-09-2009, 22:02

Even if it was a camera trick I still found it very entertaining. Are people just annoyed because the "reveal" to the trick is pretty simple (and ultimately just not very satisfying??).

Sneeka · 11-09-2009, 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richie

Hard and deep!

ohhh

I hear he's going to glue your bottom next week

Richie · 11-09-2009, 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetalGearAl

most of the comments are people calling the show absolute balls...

Which is quite appropriate really!

dl2004 · 11-09-2009, 22:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by B0zza

No - the theory is complete ********.

If you have a massive group and you choose between 1 and 49, you will get 25, 25, 25, 25, 25 and 25.

No you wouldn't - thats more unlikely than the same group predicting the lottery numbers.

thescrounger · 11-09-2009, 22:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetalGearAl

He's drawn in quite a crowd. It's the highest trend on Twitter (wonder how many people in the US have paid attention). Though most of the comments are people calling the show absolute balls...

This could be the trick that ruins him.

MetalGearAl · 11-09-2009, 22:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by dl2004

No you wouldn't - thats more unlikely than the same group predicting the lottery numbers.

I think he's right? Unless there was a natural tendency for the grand majority of people to think such things as "I think the first number is usually low.." or some psychological trend such as that? Besides that if you took the average of a very very large amount of people giving a number between 1 and 100, it'll be near to 50 won't it?

Bish · 11-09-2009, 22:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnrevill

Are people just annoyed because the "reveal" to the trick is pretty simple (and ultimately just not very satisfying??).

People are annoyed because the reveal is a total lie, he did not predict the lottery numbers with a selected group of people and all that automatic writing ********.

cjanderson · 11-09-2009, 22:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnrevill

Even if it was a camera trick I still found it very entertaining. Are people just annoyed because the "reveal" to the trick is pretty simple (and ultimately just not very satisfying??).

um, he didn't reveal anything? he just made up some crap about deep maths for an hour.

i agree with bozza, if we all randomly chose 6 numbers between 1 and 49, and we averaged out our 1st choice, 2nd choice etc, then in a large group, we'd tend towards the mid way number.

(unless he ordered everyone's choices numberically, then you;d get lower and higher ones)

zenza · 11-09-2009, 22:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnrevill

Even if it was a camera trick I still found it very entertaining. Are people just annoyed because the "reveal" to the trick is pretty simple (and ultimately just not very satisfying??).

I think people are annoyed because the reveal show was just an hour of utter jibberish that made people seem that they were brainless idiots.

turnergw · 11-09-2009, 22:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigman

No - in 3 standalone tosses (oo-er) HHH is exactly as likely as THH.

But...he was doing a continuous series of tosses until one of those sequences occurred. And that's the key I think.

Whenever HH came up, half of the time it would have been preceeded by a T so that would scupper the chance of them even taking the third toss to see if a third H came up. They'd take it as THH victory and presumably start tossing again from scratch.

It's an easy trick to set up - and as stated above, it only works if you keep flipping coins and only count the last three results, not individual sets of three. In the continuous sequence of tosses, the ONLY way you can get HHH to happen before a THH is in the very first three coin tosses, as otherwise there must be a T before it - hence Derren's THH will win. An HHH will only appear at the start of the sequence statistically one in 8 times, so on average, Derren will score 8 times as much as the other guess.

The only other DB show I've seen was the horse racing one, which was rigged and explained very well. This was hugely disappointing in comparison - shan't be bothering to watch the rest.

emeyedeejay · 11-09-2009, 22:14

I think he's sitting there watching all the negativity that that load of tosh is sure to generate and rubbing his hands together thinking to himself how it's all coming together. I'm in such 2 minds about whether that can actually be it or whether it's all oing to come together at the end.

stephen · 11-09-2009, 22:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneeka

The law of averages doesn't apply to something random like the lottery. It doesn't matter how many people you use.

My point was that if he got enough people to try his system then there is probably a reasonable chance of someone winning with it.

johnrevill · 11-09-2009, 22:15

Ok - I stand corrected as he didn't actually reveal it was a camera trick. In any case, I still enjoyed it!

Not sure if this has been linked to before, but this page has a good explanation:
http://poeljames.googlepages.com/HowDerrenDidIt.html

MetalGearAl · 11-09-2009, 22:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by turnergw

The only other DB show I've seen was the horse racing one, which was rigged and explained very well. This was hugely disappointing in comparison - shan't be bothering to watch the rest.

Oh, you should check out his other stuff, it's all much better IMHO. The horse show was enjoyable but it was a pretty well-established and well-known con trick I thought, so it wasn't that surprising to many who saw it.

It really helps that he's a very charming presenter and comes across as a genuinely nice guy, because even with show's like tonight's I don't think many fans will be put off seeing him again; I'm certainly not. If it was someone else I think the backlash would be faaaar worse. Then again if it was anyone else, Channel 4 wouldn't have let them do it

Fatbloke · 11-09-2009, 22:24

THTTHHTHHHHTHTTHTTHHTTTTTHTTHHHTHHTTHTTHHHTTHHTHTHTTTHHTHTHTHTHTTH
TTHHTHHTHTHTHHTTHTTHTTHHHHTHTHTTHTTTHTHTHTHTHTHTHHTHHTHTTHTTHTHTHH

Hmm - Assuming once a sequence is matched that both people have to start again (i.e HHHH doesn't count as 2xHHH, rather 1xHHH and a single H) then I think that coin thing would work as you are effectively jumping in before your opponent has a chance to complete their sequence.

From the Above random sequence.
HHH gets 4 points on his own, but zero if played with THH (which gets 16)
THH gets 16 points on his own, but only 6 is played against TTH (which gets 18 I think)
etc (I hope)

you basically seem to be grabbing the point before the opponent has a change to get their first two tosses.

Time for bed... My head aches!

zenza · 11-09-2009, 22:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnrevill

Not sure if this has been linked to before, but this page has a good explanation:
http://poeljames.googlepages.com/HowDerrenDidIt.html

Spot on.

11-09-2009, 21:59	#401
MetalGearAl Tiptoptastic Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Thereabouts Posts: 17,459 Thanks: 1 Thanked 5 Times in 5 Posts	Richie - Don't worry about it. They certainly didn't when filming it on Wednesday Last edited by MetalGearAl; 11-09-2009 at 22:00.

11-09-2009, 22:02	#405
johnrevill Registered User Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: England Posts: 1,267 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Even if it was a camera trick I still found it very entertaining. Are people just annoyed because the "reveal" to the trick is pretty simple (and ultimately just not very satisfying??). __________________ My feedback thread

11-09-2009, 22:15	#417
johnrevill Registered User Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: England Posts: 1,267 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Ok - I stand corrected as he didn't actually reveal it was a camera trick. In any case, I still enjoyed it! Not sure if this has been linked to before, but this page has a good explanation: http://poeljames.googlepages.com/HowDerrenDidIt.html __________________ My feedback thread

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11-09-2009, 22:00	#402
Richie everlasting nothingness Join Date: May 2000 Location: Don't know where, don't know when. Posts: 19,374 Thanks: 48 Thanked 14 Times in 7 Posts	Hard and deep! ohhh

11-09-2009, 22:01	#404
MetalGearAl Tiptoptastic Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Thereabouts Posts: 17,459 Thanks: 1 Thanked 5 Times in 5 Posts	He's drawn in quite a crowd. It's the highest trend on Twitter (wonder how many people in the US have paid attention). Though most of the comments are people calling the show absolute balls...

11-09-2009, 22:14	#415
emeyedeejay Registered User Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: London Posts: 4,076 Thanks: 8 Thanked 9 Times in 7 Posts	I think he's sitting there watching all the negativity that that load of tosh is sure to generate and rubbing his hands together thinking to himself how it's all coming together. I'm in such 2 minds about whether that can actually be it or whether it's all oing to come together at the end.

11-09-2009, 22:24	#419
Fatbloke PSN : Fatbloke-66 Join Date: May 2001 Location: Deepest Barking Posts: 4,473 Thanks: 11 Thanked 15 Times in 15 Posts	THTTHHTHHHHTHTTHTTHHTTTTTHTTHHHTHHTTHTTHHHTTHHTHTHTTTHHTHTHTHTHTTH TTHHTHHTHTHTHHTTHTTHTTHHHHTHTHTTHTTTHTHTHTHTHTHTHHTHHTHTTHTTHTHTHH Hmm - Assuming once a sequence is matched that both people have to start again (i.e HHHH doesn't count as 2xHHH, rather 1xHHH and a single H) then I think that coin thing would work as you are effectively jumping in before your opponent has a chance to complete their sequence. From the Above random sequence. HHH gets 4 points on his own, but zero if played with THH (which gets 16) THH gets 16 points on his own, but only 6 is played against TTH (which gets 18 I think) etc (I hope) you basically seem to be grabbing the point before the opponent has a change to get their first two tosses. Time for bed... My head aches!