View Full Version : Is it inevitable Android will win and the iPhone will fade into the background?
As per title.
At the moment, I can't really see any other eventual outcome.
The only way I could imagine this not happening was if Apple were to Licence their OS to other handset builders to spread their "world" a little larger.
I know everything is rosy for Apple now, and will probably continue to be for some time, but for how long can it last?
If you have (wild guess) 6 big names making Android handsets now, and all nipping the the iPhones heels, just plain maths must mean, in the long run, the balance will tip and its all downhill from there.
Android is still a little fragmented hardware wise (a bit like the PC was) but I can see a plateau being reached in time for tech specs.
Two big players, Nokia and (to a much lesser extent) Msoft are still determined to go their own way and stand against the tide. What happens there I don't know, I'd be surprised if Windows mobile 7 actually makes much noticeable headway.
Off course the biggie thing is Apps, and whilst I've never seen an Android App/store from what I've heard the quality can be a tad lacking, again, this is going to be a numbers thing.
Many developers are in time (quite naturally) going to go with the biggest source of income for them. If you had (wild stab in the dark) 6x the number of Android customers out there, would you put all your efforts into the iPhone.
I accept this is probably quite some time away, but unless anything dramatic happens to blow something out the water, I can't see any other long term outcome.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, and people stop buying Android and all buy iPhones, but I just can't see that.
Esp as in time, Good Android handsets will continue to fall in price.
The Android handset market is competitive and rapid in development, thats meaning prices are low and the consumer has choice (Screen sizes, keyboards, brands and to a lesser extent processor and software update policy). One other big advantage, if one manufacturer had produced a poor design (Say iPhone ariel (however big the real world problem may be, or the patchy quality control with the yellowing screens) then people will vote with feet.
Personally I see one of two things happening
Android will take the mid section of the market, seriously erode RIMs market share in the consumer space and start to erode high end by offering real competition for the iPhone. Apple continues to flog a phone that costs them $188 to make for at least three times that, retain the high end of the market (Price in-sensive) who want a phone that looks nice and just works (but only the way steve jobs tells them they want it to work)
or
Apple drop (frankly silly) prices to retain market share (Which they aint going to do if they can continue to make several hundred dollars out of every iSheep).
Aside:
Android suck in the corporate market. Not only do they lack the features of RIM and to a lesser extent apple, but corps won't trust a google made OS, and to be honest google have limited benefit from it as well.
Maemo from nokia looks mildly interesting, but thats probably only to me as a geek, and thats a small marketplace. How can a company mess up so badly?
PS, android user, have been from the start. Like the OS, see more spit and polish going in all the time.
SIMON ADEBISI
26-07-2010, 17:48
isheep. So true. 95% of my friends have them now. My trusty old nokia 6303 will be with me for quite a while yet.
I don't have either an iPhone or Android so I can't be biased :)
If Apple licenced OSX years ago we'd all be using that now I'd suppose and they would be rolling in it (even more)
They could still make fancy pretty designs so you could own an "Official" Apple, or you could just have bought another beige box with OSX on, and perhaps Msoft would never have amounted to very much.
I don't know is this past scenario could be deemed a mistake by Apple or a Master stroke.
They could (as I said in my 1st post) licence (for a fattish fee) the Iphone OS, produce their own nice quality designs and rake in money from a dozen other hardware builders.
That may be a stupid idea, I don't know, but it would/could spread the Apple world across a wider (less rich) audience.
I don't suppose it will happen, but if Nokia decided to go full steam ahead ever with Android that would be it, overnight game over for the iPhone would it not?
I suppose I fail to see (unless something major happens) how 1 manufacturer (no matter how many fans it has) winning the war against what could be a dozen other builders who are all pushing together a single format between them.
I can't see Apple ever licensing iOS or (Mac OS). Apple is all about the experience, the mix of tailor made hardware and software which work together perfectly. As soon they start licensing they lose control of the products and experience. If someone makes poor hardware it reflects badly on Apple. Jobs is way too much of a control freak to let that happen.
And to be fair Apple have shown that you don't need to be a volume player to be extremely profitable. I'm guessing it suits them fine to be a small premium player. If their products became too ubiquitous it might hurt their image.
It does seem likely that Android will win out, at least volume wise. Apple will only drop their prices so far and won't compromise on their margins so their will always be room for cheaper alternatives to flourish. Most people can't afford an iPhone and Android phones have already hit the £100 mark.
As the mobile web improves I think that Apps won't matter as much as now. Most apps are just reformatted web pages and it doesn't make sense to support X different platforms when ultimately the web is one platform which reaches everything.
rav2k is correct. As HTML5 and Webkit mature, the gap between native apps and web apps will narrow (see jQTouch and Sencha). There doesn't need to a 'winner' - Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile 7 will co-exist. You'll be able to buy a £30 phone which will run the same web apps as a £500 iPhone. Apple will continue to target the high-end market with style and features to differentiate them from the low-end.
I guess, when it comes to Apps, I'm thinking high end things (like games) will full use of 3D chipsets.
Basically to take over the hand held gaming market in the end.
Apple only have around a 9% share of the PC market, but no one would say they're fading into the background. Soon enough the majority of the mobile phone market will be smartphones, and if Apple take 9% of that they'll be perfectly happy.
Thanks to only having to develop one OS for one piece of hardware the iPhone will pretty much always have a slight look-and-feel edge over Android phones (the one possible exception being a Google-developed tweak to Android on a Google phone).
There will also always be people who will choose an iPhone over any other, regardless of pros and cons.
Can't imagine touchphones ever really taking over from proper portable consoles. I know that iPhone games are popular but they'll never replace a DS or PSP simply because touch screen controls just aren't good enough for most non casual games. They'll definitely have their place but there'll still be a market for portable consoles.
pompeyfan
26-07-2010, 20:17
Can't imagine touchphones ever really taking over from proper portable consoles. I know that iPhone games are popular but they'll never replace a DS or PSP simply because touch screen controls just aren't good enough for most non casual games. They'll definitely have their place but there'll still be a market for portable consoles.
Yep, and smarthone makers will need to do something about the battery as a 3D game on dedicated graphics chipset will eat through a smartphone battery in no time.
If Apple licenced OSX years ago we'd all be using that now I'd suppose and they would be rolling in it (even more)
Windows was so entrenched way before OSX was released, it wouldn't have made a dent.
The smartphone market isn't mature enough to have a clearcut os which everybody runs and just works because everybody runs it.
"wonderful" as OSX is, the girlfriends mac can't print to her laserjet attached to a print server. Under windows and linux you just pop in the IP and tell it the laserjet model, 2 minute job. Its the broad compatibility and fact everything works with windows that makes windows hard to break away from
Windows was so entrenched way before OSX was released, it wouldn't have made a dent.
The smartphone market isn't mature enough to have a clearcut os which everybody runs and just works because everybody runs it.
"wonderful" as OSX is, the girlfriends mac can't print to her laserjet attached to a print server. Under windows and linux you just pop in the IP and tell it the laserjet model, 2 minute job. Its the broad compatibility and fact everything works with windows that makes windows hard to break away from
Perhaps I was wrong in think OSX went back that far, when I said that I of course meant the Machintosh GUI OS that no-one else had at the time, years before Windows.
Also agree about the need for hard buttons for games.
Not beyond the scope.
I do struggle to see a massive long term future for just hand held games consoles that do almost nothing else.
Esp by the time kids born now, will probably have something more powerful than an iPhone5 for their 5th birthday gift.
The mac gui before osx was dreadful, horrible horrible operating system.
Apple will do fine, there are more than enough numpties that will buy iDevice as it fits their lifestyle profile. (and then moan at content providers rather than the manufacturer for not supporting the most common protocols on the web)
I do think the Android market is maturing nicely, the major corporations are getting stuff out and you're seeing it alongside the apple store ads for a few things now.
Some research
http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2010/05/mobile-market-up-smartphones-up-iphone-and-android-way-up-1.ars
basegreen
26-07-2010, 21:57
Androids biggest problem is a lack of control. Apps need to take account of a bewildering set of hardware platforms, and skinning and shimming the OS degrades the brand/name.
WinMob was lessened as a platform from HTCs over zealous skinning slowing down the OS and forcing users to learn an arbitrary system every release.
Androids biggest problem is a lack of control. Apps need to take account of a bewildering set of hardware platforms, and skinning and shimming the OS degrades the brand/name.
WinMob was lessened as a platform from HTCs over zealous skinning slowing down the OS and forcing users to learn an arbitrary system every release.
Yes, I fully agree about the Android hardware being open to customisation is a issue, but I do feel at the end of the day (as with PC's) it's a price worth paying.
What's the best way to move forward and advance the most?
Either have 1 person lock down the spec everyone works to and every so often up the spec, or a free for all, where (in effect) everyone it attempting to be the best, and whilst having a common root (so to speak) around this variations are made.
Yes (like the PC) the path is a messy on, and there will be casualties along the way, poor handsets will fall to the wayside, the best handsets will set new targets for others to aim at.
In time, as with all evolution this is bound to slow down once a common (this is good enough) level is reached, and whilst there will still be the odd eccentric in the group, I'd imagine by then (few years from now) an obvious standard/level will emerge.
Like a games console controller you may say, all the BIG brands a few years ago (after many years) kind of came together on a very similar layout of buttons as it became the natural obvious way to do things.
And as with our PC's and 3D cards, after many years of "all over the place" we have sort of levelled off and have decided how the basic thing is.
Of course, Android may not follow this path exactly. It may hit a stumbling block along the way, or someone else may pull a rabbit out the hat and blow the market to pieces.
At least if nothing else we have a lot of interesting development going on in the mobile/portable computing world.
I look forward to seeing if there is any progress over the next few years on an Android tablet.
nigel_williams
27-07-2010, 00:32
Just been reading this on Android and Me, it reports a 350% increase in sales for the UK over Q1. So indeed, things are looking rosy for Android, consumers win, there is a choice.
http://androidandme.com/2010/07/carriers/vodafone/q2-android-sales-surge-in-the-uk-record-350-increase-over-q1/
home_bas
27-07-2010, 01:57
Depends on who pays the bills in the marketplace I think as far as App distribution goes. For pure sales alone I think Android will win hands-down.
At the moment Apps-wise, iPhone apps in the corporate world have a lot of money behind them (a lot of marketing budgets) and are free in a lot of instances in the hope of 'ads' in the form of news coverage. Bosses signing these things off see them as a bit of a ******* contest against their rivals in a determination to be seen to 'innovate'.
I think a lot of the future will depend on two things - how much the corporate Apps view support of the mass market (which I think Android will inevitably achieve) as important versus supporting the latest expensive Apple gadget to show off on the golf course, and how much the mass market will embrace the Android marketplace as people have the Appstore.
Apple will just move on to the next big thing and dominate that for a few years (although I honestly don't see the iPad as being that thing).
THey are nearing the end of the iPhone's dominant position I agree. I also agree that Android will win as, at the end of the day, it is hardware that sells phones and you have the might of several big companies behind that.
campdave
27-07-2010, 08:21
Does one really have to win?
Both platforms are excellent, I don't think you could could argue that one is better than the other, but each have benefits to different groups of people.
I've just moved from Android to an iphone, and I prefer the iphone, but only marginally. Admittedly, the android phone I had was a little underpowered, and while I enjoyed using it, I just found it a little way off the iphone, though in terms of apps, it's catching up fast as the userbase grows.
TigaSefi
27-07-2010, 08:22
I have seen the Samsung S thingy at work and I still want an iphone.
This was published in yesterdays Evening Standard;
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/lifestyle/article-23859902-paranoid-about-the-android.do
Brian Blessed Badger
27-07-2010, 09:57
Perhaps I was wrong in think OSX went back that far, when I said that I of course meant the Machintosh GUI OS that no-one else had at the time, years before Windows.
Apple tried licensing the OS before (around 1995) and it didn't work very well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macintosh_clone
And to be fair Apple have shown that you don't need to be a volume player to be extremely profitable. I'm guessing it suits them fine to be a small premium player. If their products became too ubiquitous it might hurt their image.
Is the IPhone not already ubiquitious ?
Apple tried licensing the OS before (around 1995) and it didn't work very well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macintosh_clone
Is the IPhone not already ubiquitious ?
Yes an no. I think that it gets far too much coverage relative to it's market share.
Yes it is popular and everyone on the train does seem to have one but it is still definitely a premium product which most can't afford. How many kids so you see with them?
Can 'Android' ever really win when the only way it can sell in volumes is to have loads of different handsets at multiple price points? Despite loads of obvious iPhone clones it hasnt ever come close to a single iPhone model - where are the promised iPhone killers?
Not to mention the fact that 'Android' awareness is purely an Internet geek / tech blog thing. Your average consumer is not buying 'Android' they are buying a touch screen phone that looks a bit like an iPhone but is cheaper.
Can 'Android' ever really win when the only way it can sell in volumes is to have loads of different handsets at multiple price points? Despite loads of obvious iPhone clones it hasnt ever come close to a single iPhone model - where are the promised iPhone killers?
I think that's quite subjective. I'm sure a lot people would argue that phones like the N1, Desire and Evo are better than, let alone close to, the iPhone. They're comfortably better than a 3GS at the very least. You could argue that its not a fair comparison due to the age of the 3GS but going by the price it still sells for it seems reasonable.
Wendelius
27-07-2010, 14:02
Can 'Android' ever really win when the only way it can sell in volumes is to have loads of different handsets at multiple price points? Despite loads of obvious iPhone clones it hasnt ever come close to a single iPhone model - where are the promised iPhone killers?
You don't need an iPhone killer if you only need to beat 1 single handset with 30 different offerings which all focus on and grab a smaller part of the market. In the end, it ensures that Android gets more market penetration in more market layers and, over time, becomes an ever more present OS.
I don't know if that means that the iPhone is destined to fade away. But, at the least, it seems not to be destined to take a much larger part of the market than it has now.
Wendelius
internetuser
27-07-2010, 14:49
I like the android OS from what I have seen, but its very much like the Microsoft vs Linux from years ago, before apple rose so much with OSX.
android is to open source from what I can tell with little control.
With apple you know your OS on your phone will work with everything (in theory) with android its not the case from what I can tell.
(for the record, I prefer Windows 7 to the latest mac OS) just as stable and quick. Windows problem is that hardware, its not as controlled as apple.
internetuser
27-07-2010, 14:50
If Apple licenced OSX years ago we'd all be using that now I'd suppose and they would be rolling in it (even more)
They could still make fancy pretty designs so you could own an "Official" Apple, or you could just have bought another beige box with OSX on, and perhaps Msoft would never have amounted to very much.
And bang goes apples reputation for having a solid OS ! Once a 3rd party is involved the compatibility issues start.
And bang goes apples reputation for having a solid OS ! Once a 3rd party is involved the compatibility issues start.
I don't see why this should be the case.
If Items were made under licence, there is no reason why an approved list of hardware cannot be put together.
To be honest, I don't feel why any system should be classed as unreliable just because it's running on a Gigabyte or an Asus motherboard, or Crucial vs Corsair ram.
Same does for hard drives and/or DVD drives.
The only real 1 important component in the mix would be the graphics card, due to video drivers.
I can't accept that "other" makes hardware would inherently make OSX any less reliable than it currently is.
==========
Back to the phone's. Perhaps I need to change the working really. When I said "Win" I suppose I was really thinking of which will become to most popular, supported and dominant platform in the not too distant future, Apple or Android handsets.
The only Biggie now seems to be Android market place quality, but if it's a given we all accept (as seems to be the case) that given a few more years, Android will dominate, and hence have a considerably larger customer base than Apple has now, then would that not naturally also mean producers would look more and more towards developing for the Android marketplace and not limit themselves to the App Store?
Is there anything in place now (from Apple) that stops any major developers also releasing their products on the Android marketplace now?
Wendelius
27-07-2010, 17:47
Is there anything in place now (from Apple) that stops any major developers also releasing their products on the Android marketplace now?
No. You can get Evernote on Android or iOS. You can get Twydroid on both. Same for Foursquare, the new Sky App, Doodle Jumper, ...
The problem is simply that you can't easily port the code of an App. you can no doubt re-use the assets. But the rest is pretty much a full rewrite.
I might be wrong, but I think I heard recently that the Android Marketplace is now nearing 100,000 Apps. Less than half what I believe Apple to have, but a big jump. And more and more devs are producing for it. I think both must have the same percentage of shovelware. But, by strength of numbers, that leaves a lot more good Apps on iOS for now though.
Also, between the iPad and iPhone, Apple has a pretty good target audience for Apps. So whatever happens, I'm sure it will remain a very popular place to be. I just don't see it growing unchecked and all alone now that there are valid alternatives out there.
Wendelius
I work with someone who, last week, asked me how to get Android for his Iphone. Never underestimate google.
I have seen the Samsung S thingy at work and I still want an iphone.
Is that the Wave or the Galaxy? Wave is Bada OS, Galaxy is Android. Both have the super AMOLED (I got them confused as the pre-marketing was that the Galaxy was the first Super-AMOLED, but now it's the Wave).
I can't recall the exact text, but I recall something along the lines of Apple saying you have to use certain code for iTunes apps writing (or something like that)
It was a pretty incredible thing to ask, no longer did the program have to be good, and be within the rules of what's allowed to be done on the device (A rule which apple makes up as it goes along) but now you had to write the app using the approved tools ago.
Like insisting someone use a brand of paint, otherwise you will reject their artwork irrespective of it's quality.
I don't suppose that has helped porting over.
And call me a suspicious wee sole if you like, but almost as if Apple wanted to make it as hard as possible for something to write an ITunes app and easily be able to offer it on the Android marketplace also.
danielsesay
27-07-2010, 19:12
Aside:
Maemo from nokia looks mildly interesting, but thats probably only to me as a geek, and thats a small marketplace. How can a company mess up so badly?
Surely there maybe Android Nokia handsets in the near future? It's amazing how Nokia have slipped so badly. They were my phones of choice before a few years ago. Maemo's not a bad OS it's just the N900 on reflection probably wasn't a great phone to consider (especially compared to the HTC Desire).
Surely there maybe Android Nokia handsets in the near future? It's amazing how Nokia have slipped so badly. They were my phones of choice before a few years ago. Maemo's not a bad OS it's just the N900 on reflection probably wasn't a great phone to consider (especially cpmpared to the HTC Desire).
I'm assuming there a variety of reasons Nokia are holding out.
Independence, Pride, the fact they think they are big enough to go it alone.
Give it time.
Either they will astound us with something jawdropping, drift into the backwater, or finally admit defeat and come over the Android pretending it was their plan all along, they were just waiting for the time to be right ;)
Surely there maybe Android Nokia handsets in the near future? It's amazing how Nokia have slipped so badly. They were my phones of choice before a few years ago. Maemo's not a bad OS it's just the N900 on reflection probably wasn't a great phone to consider (especially cpmpared to the HTC Desire).
Yeah, I held out for ******* ages waiting for Nokia to come up with the goods, as I loved their little phones. My N95 was a solid little trooper that had apps and book readers etc years ago. Finally gave up waiting for them.
internetuser
28-07-2010, 12:03
I don't see why this should be the case.
If Items were made under licence, there is no reason why an approved list of hardware cannot be put together.
To be honest, I don't feel why any system should be classed as unreliable just because it's running on a Gigabyte or an Asus motherboard, or Crucial vs Corsair ram.
Same does for hard drives and/or DVD drives.
The only real 1 important component in the mix would be the graphics card, due to video drivers.
I can't accept that "other" makes hardware would inherently make OSX any less reliable than it currently is.
Because each and every board would be different.
If you let 3 people make apple kit, it causes 3x the problem. Apple have enough 1st part hassle at time, faulty screens etc, bios upgrades. So just 3x it or x it for every other people making it.
You dont install anything when you build an apple, it would become like windows.
If you bought a ASUS Mac, you would need to install the OS then the ASUS support kit. Then people would add 3rd party stuff to them un officially, which will happen.
For other hardware you would need other drivers, which needs to talk to other things... then they would release different revisions.
Have you ever tried to open a mac, even they are pretty hard to get into to change a drive.
They like to keep a closed system for ultimate change and supportability, and working in a support environment I know why they do it.
Its really not as simple as you see it.
dysfunction
28-07-2010, 12:13
I'm assuming there a variety of reasons Nokia are holding out.
Independence, Pride, the fact they think they are big enough to go it alone.
Give it time.
Either they will astound us with something jawdropping, drift into the backwater, or finally admit defeat and come over the Android pretending it was their plan all along, they were just waiting for the time to be right ;)
I think Nokia have made a serious mistake by not jumping onto the Android bandwagon.
I think you are right in saying "Independence, Pride, the fact they think they are big enough to go it alone." is a reason they have not done so but it must be hurting them!
I used to be a Nokia fan and have had Nokias since my first mobile but I ditched them after the N95 as they now look and feel ancient compared to the iPhone / HTC Desire
singhstar
28-07-2010, 12:21
With nokia it seems to be a case of plugging along with the inferior symbian OS (iirc they part own the symbian foundation) which will ultimately be their downfall. Symbian 3 looks interesting but still looks amateur when compared to android or the iphone OS
zantarous
01-08-2010, 08:28
Good topic.
Everyone seem to be in favour of Android here, but I don't see it so rosy for them just yet. When weighing up my new mobile I looked at android and then saw that even with the release of Android 2.2 there were still phones with 1.6 coming on to the market. And this is the biggest issue, 30+ handsets or whatever it with all these different specs and not all apps will run on all handsets.
And every time a good speced handset comes out a few weeks latter there is another that trumps that.
In the end I shelled out for the iPhone 4, as I had enjoyed my 3G and felt comforted that it would have a support life of 2 years with regards to OS updates. Apple maybe pimping just one handset but the fact that they could move 1.5 million units in the first weekend alone and three millions to date is incredible. There is nothing sheepish about wanting an idevice, I dismissed the iPhone when it first came out and no love for anything Apple until I went and played with one for 5 minutes.
And they are taking what they have learnt on the iPhone and using it on the iPad and are on course to sell 16 million this year which would pretty much give them the whole market to themselves.
As long as the networks bend over backwards and keep giving Apple kick backs they will make enough cash to keep going.
And lastly we are at the very beginning of the Smartphone market, I know they have been around in form or another for years but they have only really come in to their own in last few years and their biggest hold back at the moment is battery life. Once the boffins crack then it will be a whole different ball game.
dysfunction
02-08-2010, 07:56
Not all android phones are capable of running the newer software so saying they are "still on 1.6" is neither here nor there.
And you say there is always another new phone trumping another. Well that's a good thing! For consumers anyway as it encourages development and innovation so you get vast improvements in technology.
Glad you like the iPhone. They are not bad at all.
I just prefer to be able to do what I want with my phone rather than what Apple forces me to do on it.
I really don't get the iPad seems like a complete waste of money to me...I can'yt work out why anyone would want one. I'd rather use a laptop
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10839034
Wendelius
02-08-2010, 22:48
That article shows the iPhone being essentially staying steady and Android really taking off. Symbian and RIM are still the leaders, but the sheer variety of Android phones around means they will no doubt keep growing.
It's all very nice saying that Apple makes nice phones. But one nice phone every 18 months sitll won't beat several nice phones a year in terms of market share and innovation. Nobody forces you to upgrade every time a new phone comes out. I don't feel that my Nexus One is obsolete in any way. But once the time to upgrade comes, you definitely have more choice.
Wendelius
jmdomain
02-08-2010, 23:27
Android 3.0 is supposed to require quite a high minimum spec of phone to run it when it gets released:
1ghz processor
3.5 inch screen
A lot of android phones currently don't meet this spec and will not be able to go to 3.0, only the high-end phones currently being sold now meet this spec but this is the whole point or rather, selling point, for people to update in 6-12 months time when Android 3.0 materialises. By then, dual core phones will be the high-end handsets of choice.
3.0 will also do away with skins like sense and motoblur as Google are currently working on the user interface as the main improvement that 3.0 brings to try and supass IOS4. After that it's likely the OS will be upgraded only once a year to stop fragmentation (e.g. 3.0, 4.0 etc).
Maemo 5 on the Nokia N900 is a great OS, very Android\webOS like. Nothing out there android wise to make me jump ship yet (maybe the Droid 2 when it appears in the UK under the Milestone 2 variant).
wonder what googles idea of an improved UI is?
some sites refer to gallery 3d, but there's not much there to get an idea from
sweetmate
03-08-2010, 00:03
everything works with windows that makes windows hard to break away from
Funniest thing I will read today!!! :lol:
jmdomain
03-08-2010, 00:33
wonder what googles idea of an improved UI is?
A lifelike 3D experience with a lady of the night for the true mobile phone geek, either that or your mini-SD card back.
j to tha l-o
03-08-2010, 01:10
Apple is going nowhere in terms of marketshare in the long run. The devices are already losing their cool factor as more and more people walk around carrying similar devices from Apple. They have been absolutely crucified over the antenna issue. And it has done a lot of damage to the reputation of the company. Hell even my dear old Grandma, who knows absolutely NOTHING about computers, the internet, and technology in general, managed to give a competent explanation on the problems with iPhone 4. That blew me away. :)
Android is a complete mess IMO. I have yet to see a good UI on any Android powered phone. And the marketplace is the jungle with all its dangers.
Nobody is giving them a prayer, but I think Microsoft will win eventually with their Windows Phone solutions. Windows Phone 7 is just the first step for them, and it's a massive step in the right direction. Their business solutions still completely dominate the enterprise, and they have a lot of power and leverage to eventually get businesses using Win Phone powered devices.
On the consumer end, Zune software is better than Apple iTunes; with the added benefit of the Zune Pass.
Say what you like about Microsoft, but once they get dead serious about tackling any multi-billion dollar market, they have rarely failed to succeed in the long run. Just look at the XBox. They are killing Sony and Nintendo. They are slowly making progress with Bing in search. And they completely destroyed Linux adoption on netbooks with some very smart decisions.
Windows Mobile is the one to watch.
Captain_Howdy666
03-08-2010, 06:11
With nokia it seems to be a case of plugging along with the inferior symbian OS (iirc they part own the symbian foundation) which will ultimately be their downfall. Symbian 3 looks interesting but still looks amateur when compared to android or the iphone OS
Nokia are the outright owners of Symbian now. I'm sure I read somewhere that after the release of the N7, the Symbian software will be open source too.
nigel_williams
03-08-2010, 07:18
I think it will be difficult for even microsoft to catch android now. With the huge choice of handsets at many price points and a rapidly growing market, that is a lot of momentum. Reports yesterday suggested over 850% growth in android use in the US over the same period last year.
If anything, I'd back RIM over microsoft on smart phones, they already dominate corporate markets. As for nokia, sadly they might have missed the boat with ageing symbian, and unless they can get a decent market for apps with good developer support, I don't see them making much impact.
belgarion_v
03-08-2010, 08:27
Android 3.0 is supposed to require quite a high minimum spec of phone to run it when it gets released:
1ghz processor
3.5 inch screen
This was being touted round the net, then a developer on the project said that it is not so.
This shows the 'problem' with the internet, someone posts something, a few dozen other sites take that info and repost it cos they don't want to be behind the curve with any news, this repeats and then its everywhere.
Vince
jmdomain
03-08-2010, 14:29
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/XDp1MGlfGQ8&hl=en_GB&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/XDp1MGlfGQ8&hl=en_GB&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
But I read it on the internet ... it MUST be true :lol:
jmdomain
04-08-2010, 13:43
But I read it on the internet ... it MUST be true :lol:
Said the Troll.
Everyone seems to think so:
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1726802/android-kick-apple-s-os
Apple have the chance NOW to stop this happening and possibly become the No.1 by licensing the mobile phone OS and let others build the hardware. Taking a cut on each handset made, and also millions more people buying apps.
Will they do that?
No of course they won't.
They made the same error with the Mac, and they are going to make the same error with the iPhone
Well, depends how you see an error I guess ;)
soberion
09-08-2010, 23:44
Ok, here is my very humble opinion on this. I own a PC. I love my PC, it's great. I can change bits of it, do awesome stuff with it. It's also a pain in the arse at times when things don't want to work.
I also own an Iphone, (4 after just upgrading from a 3g). I love my Iphone. It just works. I don't have to faff around with it, getting drivers, and checking compatability. It.Just.Works. I don't use my phone as a major dev tool or serious gaming device. I just want it to play a quick game to pass the time on the loo/train/boring film with GF. I want to be able to check the weather if I'm going to visit family. I want it to find me a restaurant in a strange town. I want it to do lots of things, and it does all of them.
Yes, it's a closed shop with Apple, but I don't care, because the phone, the apps and the integration just work. (I can't even get mine to do the death-grip death of doom). I grew up with the age of Commodore vs Spectrum, Amiga vs Atari ST. Everything was a closed system back then. But there were pretty much only ever two competitors.
My best mate was looking for a phone, and I couldn't recommend the Iphone to him because of the cost, so I pointed him to the Galaxy S. He seems happy with it, and I hope it lasts him well for the next 2 years, but I have a feeling he'll have more issues with that than I do with my Iphone by the time comes.
The other small point I wanted to make, was before Iphone, smartphones were naff. I had an HTC C500? from Orange as a works phone and it was no better than my Nokia. Then Apple unveiled the Iphone. It was a game changer, a landmark. that's why every phone is trying to be it/beat it.
zantarous
10-08-2010, 01:15
The bottom line is that there is plenty of market for everyone and every price range, Apple don't need to dominate the market to keep making money.
stupendo
10-08-2010, 12:12
He seems happy with it, and I hope it lasts him well for the next 2 years, but I have a feeling he'll have more issues with that than I do with my Iphone by the time comes.
Why do you think he will have more issues with the Galaxy s than you do with the Iphone?
dysfunction
10-08-2010, 13:32
I assume his thinking is that all other phones keep crashing and iPhones are the king of all phones...
I have no issues with my Nexus One. It works brilliantly!
Wendelius
10-08-2010, 17:43
I have no issues with my Nexus One. It works brilliantly!
Same here.
Wendelius
soberion
10-08-2010, 17:49
Why do you think he will have more issues with the Galaxy s than you do with the Iphone?
I didn't say I thought he would, I said i had a feeling. Similar but different. It's only my guess, but I can see the various hardware and software revisions of Droid phones potentially causing some compatability/reliability issues. I may well be probably wrong, but as I said, it was my feeling.
I'm not trying to be an Apple fanboy, far from it. I just think in the specific area of phones with so much choice, having at last one closed loop product is a good choice to have for those that want it.
sideshowbob
10-08-2010, 17:55
My Moto Milestone works just fine most of the time. Roll-out of Froyo (2.2) could be quicker and some of the default apps / software could be better specced / thought out, but generally I'm a very happy bunny. I like the fact that when I bought it, I could open the box, insert a sim and use it - I didn't have to mate it with my PC or install software on my computer.
The other small point I wanted to make, was before Iphone, smartphones were naff. I had an HTC C500? from Orange as a works phone and it was no better than my Nokia. Then Apple unveiled the Iphone. It was a game changer, a landmark. that's why every phone is trying to be it/beat it.
The C500 was my first smartphone and it was incredible. It was a quantum leap over any phone I'd had before. It could do most/a lot of the things that my Desire can do now. Sure it wasn't as slick or easy to use but the features were all there.
The problem was that WM never moved on from that stage.
zantarous
10-08-2010, 19:27
My Moto Milestone works just fine most of the time. Roll-out of Froyo (2.2) could be quicker and some of the default apps / software could be better specced / thought out, but generally I'm a very happy bunny. I like the fact that when I bought it, I could open the box, insert a sim and use it - I didn't have to mate it with my PC or install software on my computer.
It is not so much that you have to mate it with your PC, it more the fact that depending on what SIM you put in your phoen uit will bring down all the carrier settings for you so there is no need to put in the log on details for data, SMS,MMS etc.
amcanally
11-08-2010, 23:02
Breaking News (http://www.engadget.com/2010/08/11/exclusive-sony-ericsson-to-introduce-android-3-0-gaming-platfor/) from Engadget which if true could prove to make things very very interesting in the next few years....
zantarous
12-08-2010, 05:39
I saw that earlier on there too, I have always wondered why Apple never designed a caddy to add a proper d pad and controls for the iPhone. They have some brilliant games, most of which are let down but horrid controls. This has the potential to be huge, but it will be a battery killer.
Can you say MAME?
sweetmate
12-08-2010, 13:49
I'm sure people will jump on me for this but I just watched this video http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10947784 of low bitrate sub SD bbc news clips playing on 2.2 in flash on a desire. If that doesn't vindicate Apple's stance on HTML5 over Flash i don't know what does.
Horrendous jerky performance on a superb handset, and this is 3 years on from the start of the whole debate, no wonder Adobe took so long in releasing flash for phones and why Apple lost faith in them. Compare that playback to the new HTML5 Youtube mobile site, vimeo's html5 or the native iphone youtube app (which can play 720p video beautifully), absolutely no question in my mind that flash is dead.
Wendelius
12-08-2010, 13:56
Why would people jump you for that? Flash is known to be cumbersome and a resource hog. But it still litters sites all over the web (a lot of photography ones, for example). And it's good to be able to navigate them from your phone rather than get white rectangles.
That being said, I don't think anybody has got anything against video properly optimised for mobiles either.
Wendelius
that bbc video on my desire, played ok the 2nd time around. choppy the 1st. youtube 720p vids play fine every time though
Wendelius
12-08-2010, 15:24
that bbc video on my desire, played ok the 2nd time around. choppy the 1st. youtube 720p vids play fine every time though
Agreed. Youtube is definitely on a different level quality wise.
Also, this article makes it sounds like good news all round for Android itself and Android handset makers: http://www.engadget.com/2010/08/12/gartner-and-idc-agree-the-android-invasions-accelerating-aroun/
Apple does well too. It seems like it's Symbian and the current WinMo, more than anything else, which are suffering.
Wendelius
sweetmate
12-08-2010, 15:48
that bbc video on my desire, played ok the 2nd time around. choppy the 1st. youtube 720p vids play fine every time though
youtube 720p in flash?
soberion
16-08-2010, 16:31
Why do you think he will have more issues with the Galaxy s than you do with the Iphone?
Hate to say I told you so, but at the weekend he was prompted to update the program "Kies" for his phone on the PC, now it's borked. PC doesn't recognise phone, can't transfer any data, lost all his apps, contacts and settings. Apparently spent all weekend trying to resolve and no joy yet.
A quick search of the internet reveals many people with issues after this update and the only work from Samsung is the Galaxy isn't supported fully by Kies yet. So why include the bloody software.
So, took him a week.
personally, i'd say that was a samsung problem then, not an android one.
have to say, on various forums i've heard people advise others to avoid the galaxy #because' it's a samsung phone. something to do with their support. never had one, so can't speak from experience
soberion
16-08-2010, 17:57
personally, i'd say that was a samsung problem then, not an android one.
have to say, on various forums i've heard people advise others to avoid the galaxy #because' it's a samsung phone. something to do with their support. never had one, so can't speak from experience
That's kind of the point I made in my original post. Becasue so many companies can make "Android" phones, there's a lack of consistency in hardware/support software, which leads to situations like this that will harm the Android name as much as the phone manufacturer.
but that variety is what may lead to it winning in the longer run
stupendo
16-08-2010, 20:00
Its not a ******* contest, its whatever works for you.
I'm sure if you search you will find just as many problems with apps on the IPhone as on android handsets.
What makes me laugh is all the Iphone owning friends I know say they are the best thing ever but when you ask them why they have no answer. :shrug:
zantarous
16-08-2010, 20:43
How do you define winning though? Nokia used to be the dominate phone maker but they are now a distant memory, sure they still make phones but remember when almost everyone had one?
Google may sell a gazallion phones with android but how much money are they making? Apple may never get the same market share but they do make a obscene money form the iPhone. RIM will just hang on due to their stranglehold on the corporate world.
What makes me laugh is all the Iphone owning friends I know say they are the best thing ever but when you ask them why they have no answer
It is not that unusual though is it, ask the average person why they like some thing over another and I am sure most people will struggle to answer. I mean why do i always by Nike air Max classics when buying trainers? I have been buying them since 1990 and have no idea why I like them over other trainers.
How do you define winning though? Nokia used to be the dominate phone maker but they are now a distant memory, sure they still make phones but remember when almost everyone had one?
Google may sell a gazallion phones with android but how much money are they making? Apple may never get the same market share but they do make a obscene money form the iPhone. RIM will just hang on due to their stranglehold on the corporate world.
It is not that unusual though is it, ask the average person why they like some thing over another and I am sure most people will struggle to answer. I mean why do i always by Nike air Max classics when buying trainers? I have been buying them since 1990 and have no idea why I like them over other trainers.
Android is not a cash generating unit for Google. It doesn't matter if Android itself doesn't make money. The point is more that it helps to develop the market for mobile advertising and services which Google will then profit from.
Wendelius
16-08-2010, 21:32
Android is not a cash generating unit for Google. It doesn't matter if Android itself doesn't make money. The point is more that it helps to develop the market for mobile advertising and services which Google will then profit from.
A point well made. That's where the money is for Google.
Wendelius
soberion
16-08-2010, 21:58
Its not a ******* contest, its whatever works for you.
I'm sure if you search you will find just as many problems with apps on the IPhone as on android handsets.
What makes me laugh is all the Iphone owning friends I know say they are the best thing ever but when you ask them why they have no answer. :shrug:
I know it's not.. I'm not trying to say Iphone or any other phone is better. But tonight is the first night I can remember trying to remote support someone who can't get their new phone to talk to the PC after an offical download from the phone manufacturer. Yes, this is a Samsung problem rather than Android specific, but to most people, they are going to be the same thing.
We are mostly tech savvy on here, which is why many people have a variety of phone and PC OS's. but for Joe Public, situations like this are going to harm the market. I spend 4 hours working on this remotely and eventually got a soultion. The supplied software is still pretty useless for him and unsupported however. For me, that is unnaceptable for a premium handset.
Can he still make phone calls if he holds it in his left hand?
zantarous
17-08-2010, 17:20
Can he still make phone calls if he holds it in his left hand?
Now are you talking about the Droid 2 http://www.techtechies.com/20100817/technology-news/droid-2-signal-issue-revealed-motorola-droid-2-facing-signal-issues.html or the Nexus one that google has given up trying to fix? http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/22/google-no-longer-investigating-fix-for-nexus-one-3g-issues-ad/
I am not having a go at either of these two but kind of shows how blown out of proportion the signal issue is with the iPhone.
Now are you talking about the Droid 2 http://www.techtechies.com/20100817/technology-news/droid-2-signal-issue-revealed-motorola-droid-2-facing-signal-issues.html or the Nexus one that google has given up trying to fix? http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/22/google-no-longer-investigating-fix-for-nexus-one-3g-issues-ad/
I am not having a go at either of these two but kind of shows how blown out of proportion the signal issue is with the iPhone.
Kind of like the adulation then. Guess it balances out.
zantarous
19-08-2010, 01:34
Considering how expensive the iPhone is I found this quite shocking http://appadvice.com/appnn/2010/08/apple-takes-48-mobile-phone-market-profit/
vast_girth
19-08-2010, 12:55
If i remember rightly the iphone 4 only costs apple $188 to build, which they mainly sell through their own stores, so they must be making a huge profit from every mug who then spends £600 on one.
zantarous
19-08-2010, 14:31
But what about the cost of R&D on these handsets? Or the cost of buying ARM, the add agency or marketing? Apple kit has always been more expensive but if you just simply looking and holding the dive you can see that it is built very well. Or that apple pledged to pay each Foxcon worker extra for working on the iPhone.
But if you break it down a contract free iPhone 4 in the US is $599 a contract free Nexus One was $529 so not that much of a difference.
Considering how expensive the iPhone is I found this quite shocking http://appadvice.com/appnn/2010/08/apple-takes-48-mobile-phone-market-profit/
Was just about to mention that ... Apple is effectively printing money with these things.
To put it in perspective, Nokia would have charged $1k for the N97 32gb model to match Apple's markup :eek:
stupendo
19-08-2010, 20:32
The money the networks give Apple for the privelage of having the IPhone on their networks I led to believe is incredible. Good on them if they can get away with it.
We recently bought a couple of IPad's at work and the Vodafone data plans are riduculous, I was told that this was because Apple insisted on them and coin most of the income from the tariff's, this is one of the reasons Apple have become the richest tech company.
zantarous
19-08-2010, 21:12
I believe it is in the region of about £10 per contract which is pretty much why they can't give free handsets unless you are paying stupid amounts each month.
As for Vodafone, seeing as they don't sell iPads and are free to offer data plans as they wish I find it hard to believe that they are doing this on Apples say so unless it is a condition of carrying the iPhone. Looking at o2 website there seem to at least be a daily option.
At least Android 2.2 has got it right with turning the phone into a hotspot.
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